Intelligence

Three machine layers that turn scattered data into edge. The Market Web shows how signals connect — tap a node to trace cause and effect. Forward View forecasts every driver behind your portfolio. Earth Signal reads physical activity from space and maps it to the SET names exposed to it.

LIVE PIPELINE · WHAT'S FLOWING INTO THE MARKET NOWas of 2026-06-24 · 2026-06-18

Each row is a real signal read from live data, translated into what it means for your money and the SET names it touches. The graph below is the full web of connections behind it.

Fed Funds Rate3.63% · 10y–2y +0.29HEADWIND

Fed at 3.63% — higher-for-longer US rates keep the dollar firm, which pressures the baht and risks foreign outflows from the SET. Banks earn wider margins either way.

LANDS ON →SETKBANKSCBBBL

Oil (WTI)$73 ▼ 0.5%TAILWIND

Oil $73 easing — Thailand imports its energy, so cheaper oil is a tailwind for transport, airlines and consumers. Energy producers move the other way.

LANDS ON →AOTMINTPTTPTTEP

SET ValuationP/E 22.3 vs 17.89 avgWATCH

SET trades at 22.3× — above its 17.89 long-run average. Less margin of safety; favour quality and patience over chasing.

LANDS ON →SET

Volatility & MoodVIX 16.4 · F&G 55NEUTRAL

Volatility is contained — no panic to fade right now.

LANDS ON →GoldSET

AI Capex BoomNASDAQ ▼ 2.1%WATCH

The hyperscaler spending super-cycle is the demand behind chips — it flows straight to Thailand's semiconductor names. When US tech runs, DELTA tends to follow; when it stumbles, watch for sympathy moves.

LANDS ON →DELTA

Gold$4,142 ▼ 0.5%NEUTRAL

Gold is the hedge that only helps if bought before the storm. Its bid signals de-dollarisation and real-rate fear — a check on how defensive the moment really is.

LANDS ON →Gold

WORLD HEADLINES FEEDING THE WEB

›Tourism revival plans take shapeBangkok Post ›Baht slide continues as BoT likely to hold interest rateBangkok Post ›Ministry pushes ahead with TH-AI Passport, despite criticismBangkok Post ›Gains Amid UncertaintyBangkok Post

Readings computed from live caches (daily-brief + market-mood). The causal map is curated trader knowledge — not investment advice.

TREND TAPE· ranked by expected return

2026-06-04

ASSETSPOTEXP RETVOLMODEL

QQQ

US tech · Nasdaq-100

$716.38

+5.1%

18%

vol-cone · 90d

SOXX

Semiconductors

$625.2

+9.3%

40%

vol-cone · 90d

VNM

Vietnam equity

$18.16

+5.4%

27%

vol-cone · 90d

GLD

Gold

$369.46

+3.4%

28%

vol-cone · 90d

USD/THB

Baht vs dollar

33.45

+0.6%

vol-cone · 90d

MCHI

China equity

$50.78

-1.3%

20%

vol-cone · 90d

SCB

฿141

-7.2%

18%

Kronos-mini · 20d

PTT

฿36.75

-9.0%

19%

Kronos-mini · 20d

BBL

Bangkok Bank

฿174.5

-8.7%

18%

Kronos-mini · 20d

ADVANC

Advanced Info

฿360

-10.0%

21%

Kronos-mini · 20d

KBANK

Kasikorn Bank

฿203

-11.9%

19%

Kronos-mini · 20d

SET

Thai SET

฿1,588.06

-10.3%

15%

Kronos-mini · 20d

Illustrative forecasts. Walk-forward calibration on ^SET.BK: APPROXIMATELY CALIBRATED — 80% band coverage 74% (target 80%), direction 51%, skill vs naive -11.9%. Kronos-mini is zero-shot on SET — not validated until walk-forward passes. Expected ranges, not promises.

· Walk-forward backtest, not live tracking — no guarantee of future calibration.

TOP PERFORMERS

FULL BOARD →

SET

BGRIM+25.18%

TIDLOR+15.66%

MINT+10.00%

GLOBAL

SOXX+65.20%

QQQ+17.53%

BITQ+17.52%

WHAT MOVES THE MARKET · SIGNAL WEB

GRANGER p<0.05CORRELATIONAL / p<0.10SPECULATIVE (?)event layer loading…

Granger precedence and correlation are not causation. Forecasts are model pressure, not prophecy. · Granger 2026-06-04

WHEN PATTERNS INTERSECT · TODAY'S SPARKS

THE ODDITIES LEDGER

19 ODD · 2 CONFLUENCE

VOLUME ODDITY × PRICE SHOCK × RANGE EXTREME — HMPRO

3 independent anomalies converged

2026-06-17HMPROVOLUME ODDITY

HMPRO volume 2.83σ above its 20-day normal

z 2.8

2026-06-17HMPROPRICE SHOCK

HMPRO jumped 5% — a 4.55σ move for this stock

z 4.5

2026-06-17HMPRORANGE EXTREME

HMPRO closed at a 3-MONTH high

P99

PRICE SHOCK × RANGE EXTREME — KTC

2 independent anomalies converged

2026-06-17KTCPRICE SHOCK

KTC jumped 4.07% — a 2.59σ move for this stock

z 2.6

2026-06-17KTCRANGE EXTREME

KTC closed at a 3-MONTH high

P99

2026-06-17BJCVOLUME ODDITY

BJC volume 6.86σ above its 20-day normal

z 6.9

2026-06-12SETMODEL DISAGREEMENT

Model expects SET Index down 10.29% but the tape ran up 4.95% over 20 days

z 0.1

2026-06-17KBANKMODEL DISAGREEMENT

Model expects Kasikorn Bank down 11.92% but the tape ran up 3.27% over 20 days

z 0.1

2026-06-17SCBMODEL DISAGREEMENT

Model expects SCB down 7.19% but the tape ran up 5.58% over 20 days

z 0.1

2026-06-17BBLMODEL DISAGREEMENT

Model expects Bangkok Bank down 8.7% but the tape ran up 2.05% over 20 days

z 0.1

2026-06-17SCCRANGE EXTREME

SCC closed at a 3-MONTH high

P99

2026-06-17MINTRANGE EXTREME

MINT closed at a 3-MONTH high

P98

2026-06-17RATCHRANGE EXTREME

RATCH closed at a 3-MONTH high

P99

2026-06-17BHRANGE EXTREME

BH closed at a 3-MONTH high

P98

2026-06-17TIDLORRANGE EXTREME

TIDLOR closed at a 3-MONTH high

P99

2026-06-17WHARANGE EXTREME

WHA closed at a 3-MONTH high

P97

2026-06-17BGRIMRANGE EXTREME

BGRIM closed at a 3-MONTH high

P99

2026-06-17PTTEPRANGE EXTREME

PTTEP closed at a 3-MONTH low

2026-06-17N225RANGE EXTREME

N225 closed at a 3-MONTH high

P99

An oddity is a question, not an answer.

Statistics over a 60-day window — extremes are 3-month extremes, not 52-week.

PREDICTION MARKETS● LIVE

Real-money market consensus on macro events that move SET50.

→ High rates sustained

$43.1M VOLENDS 2026-06-17

→ Cost of capital stays high

$6.1M VOLENDS 2026-12-31

ENERGYRESOLVED

Hormuz by EOJ

YES PROBABILITY

→ Oil likely stays elevated

$44.1M VOLENDS 2026-06-30

GEOPOLITICAL

China→Taiwan

YES PROBABILITY

→ Regional tail risk: low

$38.4M VOLENDS 2026-12-31

GEOPOLITICAL

Trump Out 2026

YES PROBABILITY

→ Policy continuity likely

$9.9M VOLENDS 2026-12-31

ENERGY

Crude >$115 June

YES PROBABILITY

→ Oil spike risk: low

$1.0M VOLENDS 2026-06-30

Probabilities reflect real-money market consensus, not certainty. Markets resolve when the underlying event occurs. This is not investment advice.

MARKET WEB· tap any node to trace what moves it — and what it moves

scroll = zoom · drag bg = pan · double-click = reset

FORWARD CONE (ILLUSTRATIVE)· 90-day cone for every portfolio driver

vol-cone (drift+σ baseline) · 2026-06-26

^SET.BK

Thai SET

+6.5%

vol 18%

QQQ

US tech · Nasdaq-100

+5.1%

vol 18%

ACWI

Global all-world

+3.8%

vol 14%

URTH

Global brands / world

+3.4%

vol 13%

EWJ

Japan equity

+5.1%

vol 21%

SOXX

Semiconductors

+9.3%

vol 40%

VNM

Vietnam equity

+5.4%

vol 27%

GLD

Gold

+3.4%

vol 28%

BITQ

Blockchain equities

+4.4%

vol 57%

THB=X

USD/THB

+0.6%

vol 8%

MCHI

China equity

-1.3%

vol 20%

INDA

India equity

-2.1%

vol 15%

Each cone is a 90-day forward distribution for the index that drives a Dream-Portfolio holding — median path + 10/90 band. Baseline is a transparent drift+volatility cone; run ingestion/forward_view.py in the M3 TimesFM venv to swap in the learned model. Expected ranges, not promises — not investment advice.

FORECAST CALIBRATION^SET.BK · 120 windows · 2026-06-04

APPROXIMATELY CALIBRATEDtarget 80% | actual

80% BAND COVERAGE — amber line = target

74%

COVERAGE

74%

80% target

DIRECTION

51%

50% baseline

SKILL VS NAIVE

-11.9%

vs yesterday

LAST 20 WINDOWS — ● inside 80% band, ○ outside

· Walk-forward backtest, not live tracking — no guarantee of future calibration.

· ARIMA fitted on returns, compounded for terminal price bands.

· Model is refitted each window — real-time performance may differ.

· Small positive skill vs naive (yesterday's close) is expected; large skill claims should be suspect.

KRONOS DECISION ENGINE· PROBABILISTIC HORIZON: 20d · 2026-06-04

NeoQuasar/Kronos-mini · 4.1M params

CONFIDENCE BAND:

KELLY ALLOCATION PROFILE:

Statistical Decoupling. The Kelly sizing and Probability of Profit below are computed from the zero-shot expected return and volatility forecast. Since this model is not fine-tuned on SET-specific regulations, treat allocations as risk ceilings.

SET

SET Index

฿1,588.06

20d Drift-10.3%

Ann. Vol15.4%

HOVER TO INSPECT TRAJECTORY

REDUCE / SHORTPoP: 1%

Negative bias detected. Tighten stops or allocate to cash hedges.

REC. STOP (1D SD)

฿1568.28

KELLY STAKE

0.0%

PTT

฿36.75

20d Drift-9.0%

Ann. Vol18.9%

HOVER TO INSPECT TRAJECTORY

REDUCE / SHORTPoP: 5%

Negative bias detected. Tighten stops or allocate to cash hedges.

REC. STOP (1D SD)

฿36.19

KELLY STAKE

0.0%

KBANK

Kasikorn Bank

฿203

20d Drift-11.9%

Ann. Vol19.2%

HOVER TO INSPECT TRAJECTORY

REDUCE / SHORTPoP: 1%

Negative bias detected. Tighten stops or allocate to cash hedges.

REC. STOP (1D SD)

฿199.86

KELLY STAKE

0.0%

ADVANC

Advanced Info

฿360

20d Drift-10.0%

Ann. Vol20.6%

HOVER TO INSPECT TRAJECTORY

REDUCE / SHORTPoP: 4%

Negative bias detected. Tighten stops or allocate to cash hedges.

REC. STOP (1D SD)

฿354.02

KELLY STAKE

0.0%

SCB

฿141

20d Drift-7.2%

Ann. Vol18.5%

HOVER TO INSPECT TRAJECTORY

REDUCE / SHORTPoP: 8%

Negative bias detected. Tighten stops or allocate to cash hedges.

REC. STOP (1D SD)

฿138.90

KELLY STAKE

0.0%

BBL

Bangkok Bank

฿174.5

20d Drift-8.7%

Ann. Vol18.3%

HOVER TO INSPECT TRAJECTORY

REDUCE / SHORTPoP: 5%

Negative bias detected. Tighten stops or allocate to cash hedges.

REC. STOP (1D SD)

฿171.93

KELLY STAKE

0.0%

MATHEMATICAL SPECIFICATIONS

· Zero-shot transfer from global pretrained weights — SET-specific dynamics not learned.

· 3 sample paths averaged — reduces noise but not systematic bias.

· Not validated against SET forward returns yet. Treat as illustrative.

· Bands are vol-cone (95% CI), not model uncertainty — they frame the range, not confidence.

· Expected Returns & Volatility calculated over 20-day path. Continuous-time Kelly Criterion sizing assumes log-normal returns.

EARTH SIGNAL· AlphaEarth Foundations (DeepMind, 2025) → SET tickers

○ AWAITING EARTH ENGINE PULL

64-dimensional per-pixel embeddings fuse optical, radar, LiDAR and climate. Year-over-year embedding shift over an area = physical change on the ground. Each economic site below maps to SET tickers; the change magnitude is a leading, satellite-derived activity signal — alt-data that precedes the financial print.

Suvarnabhumi AirportTourism

—

Apron / parking / terminal built-up activity → passenger-throughput proxy

→ AOT

Phuket beaches & hotelsTourism

—

Nightlights + built-up density → tourist occupancy proxy

→ CENTEL · MINT · ERW

Map Ta Phut petrochem estateEnergy

—

Industrial built-up + thermal activity → refinery / petrochem run-rate

→ PTTGC · PTT · IRPC

EEC industrial estatesIndustrial

—

Land conversion → new factory / warehouse buildout (FDI inflow)

→ WHA · AMATA · ROJNA

Laem Chabang PortExports

—

Container-yard occupancy → export volume proxy

→ RCL · WHA

Central rice plainsAgri

—

Crop vigour + planted area → food/feed supply & price pressure

→ CPF · GFPT · TVO

Isaan cassava / sugar beltAgri

—

Planted area + harvest cycle → sugar / cassava output

→ KSL · BRR · KTIS

Utility-scale solar sitesEnergy

—

New PV-array footprint → renewable capacity additions

→ GULF · GPSC · BGRIM

Dataset GOOGLE/SATELLITE_EMBEDDING/V1/ANNUAL. To populate the change metrics: pip install earthengine-api, earthengine authenticate, then run ingestion/alphaearth.py on the M3. No numbers are shown until real embeddings are pulled — never fabricated.