FORECAST EDGE
A forecast only earns trust where it disagrees with the dumb baseline — a random walk with drift, built from the same window the model saw. Agreement adds nothing to bet on; divergence is the model's actual call.
NAMES FORECAST
5
CONTRARIAN TO DRIFT
4
WIDEST DIVERGENCE
KBANK
NAMEKRONOSDRIFTEDGECALL
KBANK-24.4%+15.0%-39.4%fights trend
SCB-14.4%+12.5%-26.9%fights trend
PTT-16.9%+8.5%-25.4%fights trend
BBL-11.3%+5.6%-17.0%fights trend
ADVANC+0.0%+1.0%-1.0%tempers
THE REPORT CARD · FORECASTS GRADED ON WHAT HAPPENED
Every forecast is logged the day it is made and graded the day its horizon arrives. The 2026-06-24 exam is in: the model went 59 for 95 on direction, and beat the dumb drift baseline 11 times. A famous model is not a right model — that is the whole lesson of this page.
NAMEKRONOSDRIFTREALITYGRADE
PTT-9.0%+1.2%+6.8%miss
KBANK-11.9%+3.9%+14.3%miss
ADVANC-10.0%-2.1%+4.7%miss
SCB-7.2%+7.6%+7.1%miss
BBL-8.7%+7.2%+7.2%miss
PTT-14.5%-2.1%+8.5%miss
KBANK-26.3%+7.3%+1.2%miss
ADVANC-9.9%+0.5%-5.9%hit
SCB-16.0%-5.1%-0.7%hit
BBL-17.0%-8.5%+0.0%miss
PTT-15.5%+8.8%+3.1%miss
KBANK-27.0%+3.4%+0.8%miss
ADVANC-6.6%-1.9%-2.8%hit
SCB-14.6%+0.6%+2.6%miss
BBL-15.5%-1.2%+2.3%miss
PTT-15.1%+6.7%+4.3%miss
KBANK-27.7%+4.8%+0.0%miss
ADVANC-5.1%-2.9%-2.5%hit
SCB-13.7%+1.1%+2.0%miss
BBL-16.4%+1.4%+1.3%miss
PTT-15.7%+3.3%+7.4%miss
KBANK-23.6%-0.5%+1.2%miss
ADVANC-5.2%-4.6%-2.8%hit
SCB-13.0%+0.0%+2.6%miss
BBL-15.4%-0.8%+1.1%miss
PTT-16.0%+4.3%+6.2%miss
KBANK-23.8%-1.2%+2.0%miss
ADVANC-3.1%-5.9%-2.0%hit
SCB-13.1%-1.1%+3.3%miss
BBL-13.7%-1.3%+1.6%miss
PTT-16.9%+6.5%+4.3%miss
KBANK-25.7%-0.5%+1.6%miss
ADVANC-5.2%-2.9%-2.3%hit
SCB-11.5%-1.6%+3.0%miss
BBL-14.6%-0.4%+0.5%miss
PTT-17.6%+7.5%+1.2%miss
KBANK-24.4%+0.1%-2.4%hit
ADVANC-3.4%-3.8%-1.4%hit
SCB-12.9%+1.1%+0.7%miss
BBL-13.9%+2.3%-1.6%hit
PTT-15.9%+6.5%-0.6%hit
KBANK-23.5%-0.5%-5.7%hit
ADVANC-2.2%-6.4%-2.0%hit
SCB-12.4%-0.5%-1.3%hit
BBL-12.7%+1.8%-3.9%hit
PTT-16.6%+4.3%+0.0%miss
KBANK-23.8%-0.5%-4.8%hit
ADVANC+0.7%-7.2%-0.3%miss
SCB-13.3%+0.6%-1.7%hit
BBL-14.1%+3.6%-4.1%hit
PTT-14.9%+3.2%+0.0%miss
KBANK-23.3%-2.5%-5.2%hit
ADVANC-3.3%-0.3%-3.6%hit
SCB-10.9%+0.6%-2.6%hit
BBL-12.8%+2.2%-4.4%hit
PTT-17.9%+6.3%-1.8%hit
KBANK-24.1%-5.7%-5.7%hit
ADVANC+0.9%-4.0%-2.9%miss
SCB-11.5%-0.5%-1.0%hit
BBL-14.0%+2.2%-4.9%hit
PTT-18.7%+5.3%-4.1%hit
KBANK-23.2%-5.1%-3.7%hit
ADVANC-2.0%-2.6%-4.2%hit
SCB-11.1%-1.6%-1.7%hit
BBL-14.3%+0.4%-3.7%hit
PTT-16.5%+6.4%-4.8%hit
KBANK-21.3%-3.9%-6.1%hit
ADVANC-1.1%-2.6%-5.6%hit
SCB-11.0%-2.7%-3.4%hit
BBL-16.0%+0.0%-4.0%hit
PTT-16.7%+7.4%-4.8%hit
KBANK-21.9%-5.8%-6.6%hit
ADVANC-3.8%-0.8%-5.7%hit
SCB-8.3%-2.7%-2.7%hit
BBL-12.5%-2.1%-3.5%hit
PTT-16.7%+7.4%-4.2%hit
KBANK-21.9%-5.8%-5.3%hit
ADVANC-3.8%-0.8%-6.2%hit
SCB-8.3%-2.7%-1.4%hit
BBL-12.5%-2.1%-2.1%hit
PTT-17.4%+8.5%-4.1%hit
KBANK-22.8%+4.9%-8.3%hit
ADVANC-0.9%+0.6%-5.4%hit
SCB-12.1%+2.3%-3.6%hit
BBL-16.6%+4.0%-4.2%hit
PTT-19.0%+5.3%-2.4%hit
KBANK-24.2%+2.8%-6.0%hit
ADVANC+0.9%-6.3%-2.1%miss
SCB-10.7%+1.7%-2.7%hit
BBL-14.9%+2.7%-3.1%hit
PTT-19.3%+2.1%-0.6%hit
KBANK-24.3%+5.0%-0.8%hit
ADVANC+3.1%-3.5%-3.8%miss
SCB-14.8%+7.5%-1.3%hit
BBL-14.3%+1.9%-2.3%hit
graded 2026-06-24 → 2026-07-22 · today's forecast above is on record the same way — next grading ~2026-11-27 · we publish the misses