93
/ 70
GRAHAM · BUSINESS95.3% productive
Own durable businesses first; ticker excitement comes after business quality.
YOUR WEALTH
฿2,657,205
Your real book (Human Trade) against the cycle-aware AI Trade — see exactly why the gap, with TimesFM/Kronos 60-day forecasts, Markowitz frontier models, and Dalio asset cycles.
HUMAN TRADE · vs AI TRADE VALUE
+12.61% (+฿297,581) · AI trade ฿4,032,144
ACCOUNT & STATUS
Dream Portfolio · long-term value allocation · DP-001
MANIC — MR. MARKET IS EUPHORIC5/7 LIVE · 2026-06-18
CAPITAL COMPASS
Ballast is critically thin at 1% — growth assets have almost no shock absorber for a downturn.
Margins measured vs the Kronos-mini 60-day projection · generated 2026-06-18 · illustrative, not yet validated — not Graham intrinsic value.
PRODUCTIVE95.3%
BALLAST1.0%
CASH0.1%
SPEC3.6%
PRIORITY ACTIONS
01
Build gold + cash toward 20% — currently 1%. Dalio's framework wants explicit shock absorbers for every season.
02
Pause new buying at current prices — weighted forecast headroom is -28.5% (Kronos 60d). Wait for better prices or better facts.
03
Re-examine KFSDIV2-L (down 29%). If the business facts changed, exit; if only the price fell, consider adding at a better entry.
33
/ 70
MARGIN OF SAFETY-28.5%
Room for error — measured vs the Kronos 60-day projection (illustrative), not audited intrinsic value.
41
/ 70
DALIO · CYCLE1.0% ballast
Growth assets need cash, gold, and bonds so one macro season cannot own the whole book.
58
/ 75
RADICAL TRANSPARENCY100% covered · skill ungraded
Scores itself down until the forecast is graded against reality. Coverage alone is not honesty.
TRANSPARENCY LEDGER
Weighted forecast headroom: -28.5% — vs Kronos 60d projection, illustrative, not audited intrinsic value · as of 2026-06-18.
Forecast skill: pending — no Kronos horizon has realized against actuals yet.
Top theme: Thai equity at 28.6% of book (cap 35%).
Ballast (gold + cash): 1.0% (target 20%).
Speculative sleeve: 3.6% (cap 5%).
Graham study list: RATCH, PTTEP, PTT, KBANK, BBL — price below Graham Number on SET fundamentals.
HOLDINGS — ROLES & ACTIONS
HOLDINGROLEHEADROOMACTION
KFSDIV2-LThai equity / 5.3%-28.9%
Re-examine thesis
HEADROOM -34.8% ~theme
Down 29% — re-examine the business. If the facts changed, admit it and exit; if only the price fell, add only at a better entry.
KFINDIARMFIndia / 4.1%-21.9%
Re-examine thesis
HEADROOM +9.5%
Down 22% — re-examine the business. If the facts changed, admit it and exit; if only the price fell, add only at a better entry.
KFGBRANSSFGlobal equity / 13.2%-12.4%
Quality, price stretched
HEADROOM -24.5%
Kronos projects -19.7% ahead. Hold but don't add — wait for the price to come back toward value before committing new capital.
SCBSEMI(A)Semiconductor / 12.9%+146.0%
Quality, price stretched
HEADROOM -62.5%
Kronos projects -62.5% ahead. Hold but don't add — wait for the price to come back toward value before committing new capital.
KFGTECHRMFUS tech / 5.5%+45.7%
Quality, price stretched
HEADROOM -38.0%
Kronos projects -27.5% ahead. Hold but don't add — wait for the price to come back toward value before committing new capital.
ASP-DIGIBLOCRMFCrypto / 3.6%+79.9%
Speculative satellite
HEADROOM -45.5%
Satellite-sized at 4%. Hold only with a defined stop and exit plan.
KFJAPANRMFJapan / 2.1%+9.6%
Quality, price stretched
HEADROOM -28.2%
Kronos projects -22.0% ahead. Hold but don't add — wait for the price to come back toward value before committing new capital.
SCBRMWORLD(A)Global equity / 2.0%+8.4%
Quality, price stretched
HEADROOM -22.5%
Kronos projects -18.3% ahead. Hold but don't add — wait for the price to come back toward value before committing new capital.
Showing the 8 highest-priority of 17 holdings — full list in the HOLDINGS tab.
BUSINESSES TO STUDY · GRAHAM / SET
A study list, not a buy list — price below Graham Number with defensive scores from live fundamentals.
RATCH+41% MoS
Ratch Group Public Company Limited
฿31.75 vs Graham ฿54.19 · MoS 41% · P/E 11.1 · ROE 6.4%
PTTEP+37% MoS
PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited
฿130.50 vs Graham ฿207.30 · MoS 37% · P/E 9.3 · ROE 10.8%
PTT+35% MoS
PTT Public Company Limited
฿35.75 vs Graham ฿55.06 · MoS 35% · P/E 11.0 · ROE 7.5%
KBANK+32% MoS
Kasikornbank Public Company Limited
฿233.00 vs Graham ฿345.00 · MoS 32% · P/E 11.0 · ROE 8.5%
BBL+52% MoS
Bangkok Bank Public Company Limited
฿191.00 vs Graham ฿398.06 · MoS 52% · P/E 8.2 · ROE 7.8%
BEFORE NEW CAPITAL
1. Is this a durable business, not just a hot line on a chart?
2. Is the price below a conservative value, with room for being wrong?
3. Does the allocation survive inflation, deleveraging, recession, and mania?
60-DAY MARGIN OF SAFETY
ASSET
INTRINSICMARGIN
MCHI
60.54Spot 53.00
12.4%
INDA
54.21Spot 49.06
9.5%
VNM
14.76Spot 17.87
-21.1%
ACWI
127.23Spot 155.81
-22.5%
URTH
161.44Spot 200.99
-24.5%
EWJ
73.65Spot 94.45
-28.2%
GLD
300.69Spot 388.60
-29.2%
SET
1177.58Spot 1587.66
-34.8%
QQQ
523.50Spot 722.51
-38.0%
BITQ
18.68Spot 27.19
-45.5%
SOXX
225.17Spot 599.73
-166.3%
OPPORTUNITY GAP