CURRENT REGIME
BULL REGIME
Trend and liquidity are constructive. Risk can be taken, but entries still need valuation and price confirmation.
STANCE · CONFIDENCE
GROWTH WITH GUARDRAILS · 35% LOW CONFIDENCE
PROBABILITIES
35% B · 31% R · 34% BE
LONG-WAVE CYCLE CONVERGENCE
2/4 REDUCE · 2/4 CAUTION
DALIO — BIG CYCLE
Global debt >330% GDP. Gini at 1920s levels. Multilateral order fracturing.
BENNER — PEAK CYCLE
8-9-10 yr cycle: 2007→2018→2026 peaks. Next accumulation: 2028–2032.
K-WAVE — KONDRATIEV
50-60 yr super-cycle. AI/Robotics = next Spring. Still in Winter: debt deflation.
SOLAR CYCLE 25
Chizhevsky (1922): solar max → mass psychology peak → elevated volatility. R²=0.02–0.07; treat as volatility envelope, not signal.
Four independent long-wave frameworks converge on a single conclusion: 2025–2026 is a distribution peak, not a deployment moment. The task is capital preservation and dry powder. The generational accumulation window — when Dalio's Stage 6 reset meets the Benner trough — opens between 2028 and 2032.
Sources: Dalio (2021) · Benner (1875) · Kondratiev (1925) · Chizhevsky (1922)
BENNER CYCLE CALENDAR — 2000 TO 2040
8–9–10 yr peaks · 11–9–7 yr troughs · 16–18–20 yr panics (Benner, 1875)
◆ NOW (2026)
◆ PEAK — REDUCE
◆ TROUGH — ACCUMULATE
◆ PANIC YEAR
EVIDENCE BOARDBULL
MODEL VOTE
BULL 35%
Bull / range / bear probability from the current classifier row.
35/31/34
60D TAPE
BULLISH SKEW
How often each regime appeared in the latest 60 trading sessions.
60B 0R 0D
VOLATILITY
WATCH
VIX proxy from the classifier row. Calm volatility can still coexist with fragile valuations.
20.4
SET MOMENTUM
FLAT
Five-day SET return context. This informs timing, not intrinsic value.
+0.16%
REALIZED VOL
ELEVATED
20-day SET volatility estimate. Wider volatility lowers allowable position size.
19%
ALLOCATION STANCEGROWTH WITH GUARDRAILS
EQUITY
60%
BONDS
20%
CASH
10%
REAL
10%
This is a contextual Graham/Dalio stance, not a portfolio order. Use it to decide how much risk the rest of the app is allowed to take.
60-DAY REGIME TAPE60 SESSIONS
BULL
RANGE
BEAR
WHAT CHANGES NOW
METHOD AND PROVENANCE
Deterministic demo sequence. Replace with ingestion/regime.py output before treating signals as live. Regime is context, not prophecy. It gates risk before the Trade Desk, Portfolio, and Plan screens make their own decisions.
In the short run, the market is a voting machine. In the long run, it is a weighing machine.
BENJAMIN GRAHAM