REGIME WATCH
The classifier says which regime we're in. This says how long it has lasted, how long such regimes typically run, what it usually turns into, and the soft probability across states — the time axis a memoryless classifier can't give you.
Range-bound calm
In this regime 6 days. These typically last ~37 days — about 16% through, ~31 days of typical duration left.
Regime probability · todayas of 2026-06-18
61% Range-bound calm25% Correction / stress7% Volatile recovery7% Steady climb (steep curve)
In regime
6d
since 2026-06-11
Typical duration
37d
97% stay/day
Implied remaining
~31d
Most likely next
Correction
2.7%/day
Regime history · 252 days · 12 shifts
2025-06-232026-06-18
Soft membership is a proximity estimate to regime centroids, not a fitted posterior. Persistence, transitions and shift dates are counted directly from the discrete state history — no model fit. Basis: KMeans (k=5) on z-scored FRED daily features; analogue = nearest neighbour in feature space, forward S&P 500 return reported. A probability over regimes, not a price forecast. Generated 2026-06-21.